Recession
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AHE 2025: imperialism, China and financialisation
27 June 2025 - by Michael Roberts
Last week the annual conference of the Association for Heterodox Economics (AHE) took place in London. I quote from the AHE website: “Formed in 1999 to provide an annual conference where all heterodox (that is, Post Keynesian, Marxian, Sraffian, (…) -
Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ tax bill
29 May 2025 - by Michael Roberts
The US House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, in which the Republican party has a slender majority, has passed President Donald Trump’s government budget proposals. Trump calls this “The Big, Beautiful Bill”. It would extend (…) -
There will be blood
25 April 2025 - by Michael Roberts
“There will be blood” was the response of economists at JP Morgan, America’s biggest bank, on ‘Liberation Day’ (2 April), when Donald Trump announced his ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on all US imports. JP Morgan raised the probability of a global (…) -
Germany: drained of power; der Kraft beraubt
22 February 2025 - by Michael Roberts
Germany holds a snap election on Sunday and the current coalition government of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) is heading for a heavy defeat. The main opposition conservative Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union (…) -
Forecast 2025: roaring or tepid?
6 January 2025 - by Michael Roberts
It’s time to make some forecasts on what will happen to the world economy and its major countries in 2025. Many people reckon that it is waste of time making such forecasts as they are never accurate and quite often the opposite happens. Of (…) -
Austria: stuck in the middle
28 September 2024 - by Michael Roberts
On Sunday, Austria has a general election for its parliament. The 183 members of the National Council are elected by open list proportional representation at three levels; a single national constituency, nine constituencies based on the federal (…) -
France: Macron’s gamble
30 June 2024 - by Michael Roberts
France votes over two rounds on June 30 and July 7 in a snap parliamentary election called by President Macron after his party suffered a heavy defeat in the June EU Assembly elections. France has two rounds of voting: if a candidate gets 50% of (…) -
From the Magnificent Seven to the Desperate Hundred
15 April 2024 - by Michael Roberts
In Q1 2024, global stock markets recorded their best first-quarter performance in five years, buoyed by hopes of a soft economic landing in the US and enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. A MSCI index of worldwide stocks has gained 7.7% (…) -
Central banks: boom or slump?
3 February 2023 - by Michael Roberts
Three of the major central banks met and raised their policy interest rates yet again in the so-called ‘fight against inflation’. Interest-rate levels are now at 15-year highs. But the financial markets took the comments of the central bankers (…) -
The US rate of profit in 2021
20 December 2022 - by Michael Roberts
Every year, I analyse the US rate of profit on capital. This is because the US data is the best and most comprehensive to use and because the US is the most important capitalist economy, often setting the scene for trends in global capitalism. (…) -
Energy, cost of living and recession
5 September 2022 - by Michael Roberts
The G7 governments have a problem. The war in Ukraine against Russia is not won. It looks set to be a long grinding conflict, possibly with no end. And yet the world and particularly Europe depends on Russian energy supplies. The G7 has (…) -
Europe: caught in a trap
27 July 2022 - by Michael Roberts
The major economies are moving closer to recession, if they are not already there; and yet inflation rates continue to rise (for now). The latest surveys of business activity, called Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), show that both the Euro (…)
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