The ECB acknowledges the impact of increased military expenditure on debt: higher defence spending needs will strain government finances

13 November 2025 by Fátima Martín


Jorge Alaminos. (Litoral gráfico. Modos de ver).

The European Central Bank (ECB) acknowledged the impact of increased military expenditure by European Union (EU) member states on debt, interest rates, and public finances. It even echoes plans to reallocate to defence funds currently earmarked for other purposes.



“Debt levels and interest Interest An amount paid in remuneration of an investment or received by a lender. Interest is calculated on the amount of the capital invested or borrowed, the duration of the operation and the rate that has been set. costs are set to rise and will weigh on government finances beyond the short to medium term (...) sovereign debt Sovereign debt Government debts or debts guaranteed by the government. levels may rise again as increases in defence spending and potential further stimulus packages will be financed largely by additional debt,” the ECB ECB
European Central Bank
The European Central Bank is a European institution based in Frankfurt, founded in 1998, to which the countries of the Eurozone have transferred their monetary powers. Its official role is to ensure price stability by combating inflation within that Zone. Its three decision-making organs (the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council) are composed of governors of the central banks of the member states and/or recognized specialists. According to its statutes, it is politically ‘independent’ but it is directly influenced by the world of finance.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/html/index.en.html
admitted in its Financial Stability Review of May 2025. [1]

It explained how it would happen: “Given the relatively long average maturity of new sovereign debt, the refinancing of maturing debt issued at very low rates before 2022 at current market conditions, together with the issuance required to finance additional spending, is likely to increase interest payments relative to GDP GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product is an aggregate measure of total production within a given territory equal to the sum of the gross values added. The measure is notoriously incomplete; for example it does not take into account any activity that does not enter into a commercial exchange. The GDP takes into account both the production of goods and the production of services. Economic growth is defined as the variation of the GDP from one period to another.
for years to come.” [2] 

Europe’s recovery plan suggests “repurposing parts of the existing EU budget.”

In the section devoted to macro-financial and credit environment the ECB insists that increases in defence spending will have a significant impact on budgets, requiring more fiscal space. In order to implement that fiscal space, the report mentions proposals put forward by the European Commission in its ReArm Europe Plan [3]: “activating the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact and disbursing loans from new joint borrowing using the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument.” Moreover, the plan suggest “repurposing parts of the existing EU budget.” [4]

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), observing an unprecedented rise in global defence spending in 2024 (it will amount to $2,700 bn, with Europe and the Middle East in the lead), warns that “as governments increasingly prioritize military security, often at the expense of other budget areas, the economic and social trade-offs could have significant effects on societies for years to come.” [5]

All European countries increased their military spending in 2024 except Malta.

Data collected by SIPRI indicate that “military spending in Europe (including Russia) rose by 17 per cent to $693 billion and was the main contributor to the global increase in 2024. With the war in Ukraine in its third year, military expenditure kept rising across the continent, pushing European military spending beyond the level recorded at the end of the cold war. All European countries increased their military spending in 2024 except Malta.” [6]

Military expenditure kept rising across the continent, pushing European military spending beyond the level recorded at the end of the cold war

In Germany, military expenditure increased by 28 per cent to reach $88.5 billion, making it the biggest spender in Central and Western Europe (for the first time since reunification) and the fourth biggest in the world. Poland’s military spending grew by 31 per cent to $38.0 billion in 2024, representing 4.2 per cent of Poland’s GDP. Military expenditure by France rose by 6.1 per cent to reach $64.7 billion, making it the ninth biggest spender. Sweden increased its military expenditure by 34 per cent in 2024, to $12.0 billion. A SIPRI researcher notes that “Europe has entered a period of high and increasing military spending that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.” [7]

As to the European Union (EU), the European Parliament itself comments on the need to strengthen security in the EU. This entails a rise in defence spending among EU countries by over 30% between 2021 and 2024, reaching an estimated €326 billion, which is 1.9% of the EU’s GDP. “Spending has been consistently going up since 2014 when it amounted to just €147 billion.” [8] In March 2025, the European Commission estimated that the ReArm Europe Plan could mobilize €800 billion. [9] This was three months before the NATO NATO
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NATO ensures US military protection for the Europeans in case of aggression, but above all it gives the USA supremacy over the Western Bloc. Western European countries agreed to place their armed forces within a defence system under US command, and thus recognize the preponderance of the USA. NATO was founded in 1949 in Washington, but became less prominent after the end of the Cold War. In 2002, it had 19 members: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK, the USA, to which were added Greece and Turkey in 1952, the Federal Republic of Germany in 1955 (replaced by Unified Germany in 1990), Spain in 1982, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic in 1999.
summit in The Hague, during which, responding to Trump’s pressure, member states committed to increase their defence spending every year to reach 5 per cent of their GDP by 2035. [10]

Boosting spending alone will not necessarily translate into significantly greater military capability or independence from the USA

The research carried out by SIPRI also provides data about the military spending of NATO member states. “European NATO members spent $454 billion in total, representing 30 per cent of total spending across the alliance.”
 [11] It further comments that “the rapid spending increases among European NATO members were driven mainly by the ongoing Russian threat and concerns about possible US disengagement within the alliance.” [12] However, “boosting spending alone will not necessarily translate into significantly greater military capability or independence from the USA. Those are far more complex tasks.” [13]

Part of that complexity lies in the fact that the US fund BlackRock, the world’s largest asset Asset Something belonging to an individual or a business that has value or the power to earn money (FT). The opposite of assets are liabilities, that is the part of the balance sheet reflecting a company’s resources (the capital contributed by the partners, provisions for contingencies and charges, as well as the outstanding debts). manager, is one of the main beneficiaries of Europe’s rearming. Indeed the same US investment companies are active in both EU and US major military companies, jointly owning shares with the governments. [14]

The OECD OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OECD: the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, created in 1960. It includes the major industrialized countries and has 34 members as of January 2016.

http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/
asked the EU not to rely on borrowing to finance defence spending and warned that it would be necessary to cut non defence spending or raise taxes

Aside from the ECB, many official bodies acknowledge the impact of increased military spending on government finances. The International Monetary Fund IMF
International Monetary Fund
Along with the World Bank, the IMF was founded on the day the Bretton Woods Agreements were signed. Its first mission was to support the new system of standard exchange rates.

When the Bretton Wood fixed rates system came to an end in 1971, the main function of the IMF became that of being both policeman and fireman for global capital: it acts as policeman when it enforces its Structural Adjustment Policies and as fireman when it steps in to help out governments in risk of defaulting on debt repayments.

As for the World Bank, a weighted voting system operates: depending on the amount paid as contribution by each member state. 85% of the votes is required to modify the IMF Charter (which means that the USA with 17,68% % of the votes has a de facto veto on any change).

The institution is dominated by five countries: the United States (16,74%), Japan (6,23%), Germany (5,81%), France (4,29%) and the UK (4,29%).
The other 183 member countries are divided into groups led by one country. The most important one (6,57% of the votes) is led by Belgium. The least important group of countries (1,55% of the votes) is led by Gabon and brings together African countries.

http://imf.org
(IMF) urged the EU to analyse the impact of the rise in defence spending on the viability of public debt, considering a difficult international context. It also recommended carrying out substantial reforms. [15]

The OECD asked the EU not to rely on borrowing to finance defence spending and warned that it would be necessary to cut non-defence spending or raise taxes, particularly in countries with limited fiscal space. [16]

At the national level, Cristina Herrero, president of Spain’s Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), clearly stated that military spending is accounted for as debt and liability: in fiscal terms €10 billion of defence spending means €10 billion of liability and debt, whatever the implemented restructuring. According to Herrero, either revenues must be increased or other spending must be cut. [17]

We have to keep in mind that Europe’s warmongering madly increases public debt and entails a direct attack against the welfare state and workers’ rights. [18]

Translated by Christine Pagnoulle et Snake Arbusto


Footnotes

[1ECB (2025). “Financial Stability Review,” pp. 21-22. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html

[2Ibid. p. 23.

[3Initially called “ReArm Europe Plan.” See “Press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package,” European Commission, Brussels, 4 March 2025, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/statement_25_673/STATEMENT_25_673_EN.pdf, and “Commission unveils the White Paper for European Defence and the ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030,” European Commission, Brussels, 19 March 2025, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_25_793/IP_25_793_EN.pdf

[4Ibid. p. 22.

[6Ibid.

[9Ibid.

[11SIPRI, op. cit.

[12Ibid.

[13Ibid.

[14Fátima Martín (4/4/2025). BlackRock, ancien employeur américain du prochain chancelier allemand Merz, grand bénéficiaire du réarmement de l’Europe (BlackRock, the former employer of future German Chancellor Merz, will reap big profits from Europe’s rearming), CADTM 23433 (in French)

[18See 23338

Fátima Martín

is a journalist and co-author with Jérôme Duval of Construcción europea al servicio de los mercados financieros, Icaria editorial 2016. She runs the on-line magazine FemeninoRural.com.

Other articles in English by Fátima Martín (13)

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